I often wonder why we give so-called political “experts” the time of day. Maybe in the distant past they had something relevant to offer but not now. Times have changed in the world of politics. The old rules, the old ways of doing things, the old thought processes are no longer in play. And if you don’t change to reflect the changing political times, you lose.
Take Alan Lange of Y’all Politics as an example. He’s been on the anti-Chris McDaniel bus since there was one. Even though his site once named Senator McDaniel as the TOP rising star in the Mississippi Republican Party, he’s made perpetual war on him since he dared challenge Lange’s benefactor, Thad Cochran.
In a recent article, Lange lists his reasons why McDaniel will lose to Roger Wicker in a hypothetical 2018 matchup:
“First, the anti-incumbency tide is not nearly as high as it was in 2014 for Republicans, especially with Trump in the White House.”
Where has Lange been? The anti-Establishment winds are STRONGER now than they were in 2014. Three years ago it was but a gentle breeze that kicked up as the McDaniel-Cochran race got hotter. After the Establishment-orchestrated smear campaign trashed McDaniel, the anger began to build. But more on that in a minute.
If Lange is right, why did Bob Corker, who chairs the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Jeff Flake, once considered safe until recently, throw in the towel? Because they felt that fierce hurricane blowing and decided to bow out before succumbing to a humiliating defeat.
“Second, I think there’s still a major hangover from 2014 in that voters and donors both remember the ‘lack of institutional control’ his campaign exhibited.”
Lange’s argument here is nothing more than Establishment fibs they’ve been peddling since 2014. But what McDaniel’s base clearly remembers is how he was treated. And his base is strong – a 187,000+ army of voters that were all REPUBLICANS, unlike Cochran, who won with tens of thousands of Democrat votes. And the hatred is strong too, feelings of betrayal that swept across the country and has caused “Remember Mississippi” to become a national anti-Establishment slogan!
“Third, I don’t think there will be nearly the amount of outside money that really boosted McDaniel in 2014 available to him.”
Lange is fond of quoting the old political adage: “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” But that’s just what it is – old. It’s outdated and no longer relevant. Social media and other factors have changed the game considerably.
McDaniel was far behind the Cochran/Barbour machine in money, with $8 million in negative attack ads thrown at him, yet still won the primary and the Republican vote during the runoff. Messaging in this anti-Establishment climate is everything. A candidate can have all the cash in the world and run an Establishment-oriented campaign and get wiped out. Just ask Jeb Bush, who had everything in his favor, including a massive war chest, yet got all of 3 percent of the vote.
And so did every other Establishment candidate that tried to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. They all failed, with many of them bowing out before the first voters were cast. Comparatively speaking, Trump spent next to nothing to win the nomination and the White House.
“Finally, I think Wicker is an order of magnitude better of a political candidate than Cochran. It appears that a meaningful tax bill is on the horizon and that’s a pretty big deliverable.”
Well who can say whether the Republican Congress can deliver a tax bill or not, since they have failed at everything so far this year. But Wicker must do more than tout a tax bill; he must stand by his own awful record, which Conservative Review rates as an “F” with a score of 30 (Cochran’s is only a 24 and Bennie Thompson, the liberal Democrat, rates a 20).
So far Senator Wicker has been unable, and unwilling, to defend his years in Congress. He’s trying to run on his support for Trump since he can’t stand on his own record. Not to mention the fact that during the presidential campaign last year, Wicker, as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, urged incumbents not to attend the Republican National Convention and to stay away from Trump.
“Bottom line – If McDaniel were to hop in, it would still be Wicker’s race to lose.”
Yet Wicker has already made catastrophic mistakes that will bite him and bite him hard in 2018. Aside from his liberal voting record, witch McDaniel will expose, Wicker has stood with liberals like Cory Booker of New Jersey in calling for removal of the state flag. That distasteful fact has been met with anger on social media and will cause him major headaches in any campaign against McDaniel.
So, let not your heart be troubled, and put not your faith in “experts” and political pundits, who are so often erroneous in their assessments, for these same “experts” said Trump had no chance to win the GOP presidential nomination and, after he pulled off the unthinkable, that he would certainly lose to Hillary Clinton.
They were also wrong about Chris McDaniel in 2014 when they predicted his ultimate slaughter, and they are wrong about 2018. Why? Because they do not understand the signs of the times.